Continuing on from the previous post, if I were to speculate on the next frontiers for mobile, this is how I want to think. Which are the remaining functions that can be packaged and connected? The adventure doesn't have to be constrained to seemingly mobile applications but traditionally fixed applications and devices are all game. Discounting the fact that a dumb terminal may still be needed in order to efficiently use the computing power for various functions, some part of intelligence or computing power will transfer to the mobile device and the rest will be outsourced to the network.
But here is the fun part, based on what paradigm the vendors believe in they tend to develop within the defines of that paradigm until the cost of making far exceeds the cost of sustaining the paradigm. Companies that believe function drives the sales are adding core mobility features to their existing platforms, making smart phones out of their devices example will be Garmin making mobile phone out of its GPS, Sony and Nintendo adding a network technology to PSP or gameboy. Cell phone makers that believe it is the applications that are the paradigm shift are betting on operating systems that they believe have the most critical mass of app developers. Those that believe that consumers get married to an OS want to own their platforms. Still others think that the content delivery eco systems are driving the handset rage and they want universal stores for content; those will be your mega service providers. In the name of consumerization the bridge between consumers and enterprise devices is being explored by some. And lets not forget the low tier entrants who believe that consumers are fickle and cheap, price is the deciding factor so let’s make a phone that resembles the winning horse, it may not gallop like a thorough bred or jump through burning hoops but it will get through the basic hurdles and the price will be just right to entice. All of this and I have not even forayed into the the different beliefs on ideal display size. Something for everyone maynot be a profitable paradigm but a constellation needs time to take shape!
With obvious market share holders in near term, the mobile market remains highly competitive, but it will always have room to squeeze more winners. We have gone from keys, stylus, touch, gesture, speech recognition and 3D just on the user interface and data entry in less than two decades. Eventually the eco system driven usage revolution will become common ground in terms of its availability in different flavors on variety of platforms. Guaranteed there will be followers of one platform or the other which will help that vendor retain a level of market share, but overall there will always be enough flux for newer ideas to make a splash.
But here is the fun part, based on what paradigm the vendors believe in they tend to develop within the defines of that paradigm until the cost of making far exceeds the cost of sustaining the paradigm. Companies that believe function drives the sales are adding core mobility features to their existing platforms, making smart phones out of their devices example will be Garmin making mobile phone out of its GPS, Sony and Nintendo adding a network technology to PSP or gameboy. Cell phone makers that believe it is the applications that are the paradigm shift are betting on operating systems that they believe have the most critical mass of app developers. Those that believe that consumers get married to an OS want to own their platforms. Still others think that the content delivery eco systems are driving the handset rage and they want universal stores for content; those will be your mega service providers. In the name of consumerization the bridge between consumers and enterprise devices is being explored by some. And lets not forget the low tier entrants who believe that consumers are fickle and cheap, price is the deciding factor so let’s make a phone that resembles the winning horse, it may not gallop like a thorough bred or jump through burning hoops but it will get through the basic hurdles and the price will be just right to entice. All of this and I have not even forayed into the the different beliefs on ideal display size. Something for everyone maynot be a profitable paradigm but a constellation needs time to take shape!
With obvious market share holders in near term, the mobile market remains highly competitive, but it will always have room to squeeze more winners. We have gone from keys, stylus, touch, gesture, speech recognition and 3D just on the user interface and data entry in less than two decades. Eventually the eco system driven usage revolution will become common ground in terms of its availability in different flavors on variety of platforms. Guaranteed there will be followers of one platform or the other which will help that vendor retain a level of market share, but overall there will always be enough flux for newer ideas to make a splash.
