Mobile pond is big enough... for fishes of all sizes

Continuing on from the previous post, if I were to speculate on the next frontiers for mobile, this is how I want to think. Which are the remaining functions that can be packaged and connected? The adventure doesn't have to be constrained to seemingly mobile applications but traditionally fixed applications and devices are all game. Discounting the fact that a dumb terminal may still be needed in order to efficiently use the computing power for various functions, some part of intelligence or computing power will transfer to the mobile device and the rest will be outsourced to the network.

But here is the fun part, based on what paradigm the vendors believe in they tend to develop within the defines of that paradigm until the cost of making far exceeds the cost of sustaining the paradigm. Companies that believe function drives the sales are adding core mobility features to their existing platforms, making smart phones out of their devices example will be Garmin making mobile phone out of its GPS, Sony and Nintendo adding a network technology to PSP or gameboy. Cell phone makers that believe it is the applications that are the paradigm shift are betting on operating systems that they believe have the most critical mass of app developers. Those that believe that consumers get married to an OS want to own their platforms. Still others think that the content delivery eco systems are driving the handset rage and they want universal stores for content; those will be your mega service providers. In the name of consumerization the bridge between consumers and enterprise devices is being explored by some. And lets not forget the low tier entrants who believe that consumers are fickle and cheap, price is the deciding factor so let’s make a phone that resembles the winning horse, it may not gallop like a thorough bred or jump through burning hoops but it will get through the basic hurdles and the price will be just right to entice. All of this and I have not even forayed into the the different beliefs on ideal display size. Something for everyone maynot be a profitable paradigm but a constellation needs time to take shape!

With obvious market share holders in near term, the mobile market remains highly competitive, but it will always have room to squeeze more winners. We have gone from keys, stylus, touch, gesture, speech recognition and 3D just on the user interface and data entry in less than two decades. Eventually the eco system driven usage revolution will become common ground in terms of its availability in different flavors on variety of platforms. Guaranteed there will be followers of one platform or the other which will help that vendor retain a level of market share, but overall there will always be enough flux for newer ideas to make a splash.

Mobile....the next frontier(s)

There is no one deciding factor; that by now is clear with all the different firms taking an aim at the same bulls eye but through hundred different directions and hundred different projectiles. Mobile phones have gone through changes, and the development may be defined through many lenses. Painting the historical progression is not easy as each brush stroke will create its own explanation of the available landscape, which will be wholly plausible to the painter, though it may remain mystery to everyone else. For example I can talk about how the cell phone is a fashion accessory, or may be its form is what has changed, or it is all about creating a perception when it comes to marketing. I didn’t mention function because the data and voice connectivity are the lowest common denominator or "table stakes" and are a moot selling point, (unless the reputation of dropped calls becomes viral).

Thinking back when just owning the “brick” was fashionable getting a lighter one became hip, and then smaller was “in” and after that sleeker smoother sharper edges came and recently just owning one (of a certain brand) was trendy again. The problem with that paradigm is that one cannot really predict what will be fashionable and a device that is in major ways driven by technology becomes whimsical in its forecast, like predicting a pop diva’s next hit.

We can debate the form cycle (Brick, candybar, clamshell, slide, swivel, curved, square, round, oval) or function vs perception (clam is better than candybar or vice versa). In its own (short) era, riding on the technology of the time, each category met with its destination through varying tastes of consumers, be that due to any number of reasons such as demographics, location, cultures etc.

But there are other changes that interest me a lot more. Changes that result in cannibalization of function and form. Maybe cannibalization is not the right word here, I really mean convergence of functions, spread across devices, into one device. Almost every personal piece of hardware that used to cling to or hang from a persons, arms, legs, wrists necks have converged to one device. Pagers, Cameras, running GPSs, data entry, notepads, radios, portable TVs, gaming devices, calendars all now play together in one space. Substitution is one aspect but not only are all these different roles packed into one device, they are all connected. This is not just convergence, it is a connected convergence of function based on context and transfer of intelligence into one device.

Mobile is here...now what (Part II)

Whatever data was on paper went digital and then metaphorically to the cloud and now the cloud has wings. Although one can argue that essentially nothing has changed in digital domain accept the evolution of ways to access and present the data.

The big bang that was iPhone to the mobile universe and the follow up tremor that is iPad has turned the mobility industry on its head. Within few months, nation’s fastest network became the nation’s most condemned due to dropped calls and customer complaints. The truth of the matter is telecom networks of the old were not designed for everyone to be on them at the same time, they are multiplexed in hopes of maximizing utilization. The proliferation of information hungry data guzzlers have put, well, pressure on the infrastructure. But it has been a good pressure, because we were thinking 4G sometimes in 2015 and here we are in 2011 seemingly in a 4G competition; even few billion dollars worth of network upgrades merit the waiting period of some dropped calls, or maybe not.

According to Thomas Kuhn scientific advancement is not evolutionary, but is something of a paradigm shift in our perception. Since I have not grown any wings yet, I would agree with him. Human actions and interactions are limited to a few permutations or extensions of their instincts, but the ways and means to approaching those combinations change according to our "gadgets" or scientific innovation. The internet revolution was big, it was bigger than hulk exploding in his trousers, but this mobile giant I feel is even bigger. Internet allowed access, and mobile is a promise of omnipresent access, give and take few black spots. Thanks to smartphones and smarter people, I can check the shrinking dollars in my checking, or the bulging credit when I want, or pay through my phone and make purchases at a whim (with discount offers off course), check if I can get a cheaper/better deal, see if my house is still standing, or my appliances are consuming energy when they are not supposed to, enter my abode by wave of my hands(the device in my hand that is), keep track of all my friends and then be “followed” in return, basically be connected, be really really connected to everything, everywhere.

This torrent of data is great if it makes for an efficient life forming a tightly knit symbiotic relation of every being and every resource through instant information to each “node”, preserving/nurturing the life after us not the "life after". So far human advancement has come at a cost to the sustenance of the planet but the jury is still out as the planet continues to breathe and the water has not yet risen to Al Gore levels. Hopefully, the ease of use fostered by technology will not be synonymous with a lethargy of mind and will result in better “connection” to all life.