The return of the corner book shop

When one can shrink an entire book store in to inches, or better still, deliver entire collection of books ever written to its audience like drops of rain from a cloud, then the coldness of digital intimacy will almost force people to turn to small corner book stores for that warm and cozy feeling of flipping pages and sipping coffee. There will be proliferation of digital media and every word that is produced will be available on a portable digital format, which everybody can afford and will have. I am not talking about my generation or even the one before me, but surely the one of my kids and their contemporaries will live in the digital life where paper will be a nostalgic medium.

Offices right now still use paper like insanity, where one tablet can make the data transfer and "on the go" viewing much less a hassle. Instead of print preview, you are always on the preview. Instead of jolting down ideas on diaries and eventually writing back to the word processor, things can move "run time".

Getting back to my dreams of sipping coffee with a paper back and looking out of the window into the rain.....the small shops will return to the scene and big brick and mortars that ate them will be eaten by an even smaller giant....

A Scenario ..for Mobile Payment

Carrying cash is getting old fashioned and last night I was the only one on the table shelling out the greens; everybody else from our group put a card down. Our server was less than thrilled, I am sure, but the times have changed and consumers like clients careless about the frown on the service providers face than their own convenience which is fine because everybody is one or the other at a given time.

The card and accompanying maths was less of an amusement than the imaginary scenario playing in my head; each person instead of handing out the credit cards, waves their phones; here Mr. server, please take my mobile wallet, and with six of those wallets in his hands, we would get to see a nice little juggling act to the payment register....

Less comical would have been a mobile POS with a near field reader and each person paying one by one, with phone wallet or something from the "old" wallet...

This reminded me that future of mobile payments, bright as it may be needs work. Half a century of ingrained human behaviors are less likely to fade away....with lets say half baked solutions, unless we just wipe away the other choices, which is not likely to happen in developed countries.

Here is how I would have framed my last get together, had I the pieces woven....

Scenario:
------------

- Email or SMS is sent to group of friends, "who is up for dinner". The email/message may be originated from within the payment app on the smart phone.

- There is a link in the email and by clicking it you acknowledge or agree you will be joining.

- People meet up at the restaurant and their smart phones automatically checks them in or they touch some NFC sign somewhere on the restaurant door or side wall, or even through WiFi.

- Now the application on the smart phone of the organizer, the restaurant and everyone else, knows who actually made it to the place.

- When the bill comes the group tells the server to split the bill using a group id. (Lets assume the restaurant is running the "service provider" version of the app.)

- The cashier does just that with his mobile POS, which could have been a smart phone or a tablet and pushes the bill back.

- Everybody in the group who was in the restaurant receives their share of the bill on their phones

- At this point the organizer of the get together can use his app/phone to pay, and each person that actually checked in the restaurant is charged accordingly.

- A notification is sent to their smart phones. Each individual can accept the charge, using the group Id for the party and their own code or pin authentication.

- On the other hand everybody can be sent share of their bill and each can send the money themselves using the app. This can be done via the restaurant billing app or the organizer can push to the participants.

- In either case the user can accept the charge with one click plus some authentication.

- The restaurant receives confirmation on their app that the bill is paid and everybody is on their merry way.

This can be further expanded as:

- Everybody's order gets recorded in the same application. The app has a link to the ordering system. Now the restaurant can push individual bills to everybody ... going dutch, the modern way... no more doing the division...

----------------------------------------------------------

In this scenario the phone acts as a payment facilitator, a mobile wallet, replacing not only the cash/credit but also the card based payment norms, such as touch swipe, signature etc.

There are two big problems in the whole affair... who will adapt this....changing something of a norm is not an easy task.

Secondly the bigger issue is integration. It is easier to imagine that all the players and their infrastructure, from restaurant ordering systems to merchant payment networks, banks and carriers, are playing nice and everything is seamless. But this is much harder to implement in a generalized fashion, with multiple vendor and service provider support.

I do believe that the consumer behavior that I and my friends exhibit can be changed, if each component in the above use case is tightly knit. To make the "convenience" argument for the use case, we need one app that generates the message, collects the responses, keeps track of check-ins to the restaurant, is connected to restaurant systems and has a payment back end be it through carriers, other credit/banking networks or the app stores.

Simplicity, ease of use, and convenience are the key considerations for driving user acceptance. To that end minimizing the user interaction with their app down to few steps such as accepting invitation, payment authentication and some status messages would make for a limited but convenient interaction. There cannot be hidden fees such as each time the app is used a certain charge is made, etc. The technology must aim to replace the existing norms with (perception of) convenience at the same or lesser costs to its target beneficiaries .....

Thou shalt not steal ...others Wallet...

lest...you are ready to part with your keepings....Patents are public knowledge, and if they aren't they should be, lawyers are expensive. Looking at all the patent infringements law suits on the mobile front I have come to the understanding that before inventing one should consult a lawyer.The mobile space is evolving and ideas come to mind, but sometimes they come to other minds earlier and faster. Recognizing that can save some pretty penny.
While every major player is looking at it with different angle, it is clear that for consumers to feel inclined towards mobile transactions using their mobile device as their currency/ID, an integrated, smooth, no hassle, simple, secure service has to be offered, which is not possible without the participation of major players in specific industries. The perfect storm needs the Financial institutions, Carriers, OS platforms and payment networks to all play together nicely, even if the solutions are separate, they need to coexist. Consumers are all about convenience; and more options, when it comes to pay are convenient, they are less bothered by who is going to win the monetization race, or how the pie is being split.
I looked at the Device Fidelity's mobile wallet patent and it is comprehensive. I am a believer that law suits are an excellent source of income to..well the lawyers, the rest of us techies would careless. The pdf for Device Fidelity mobile wallet patent with the images in their places can be found in the link below.

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=explorer&chrome=true&srcid=0B_40SUf1ic7PODRlOTI0OGItMjk1NC00Zjc1LTkxOWMtYzk2YzYyZmNjODI3&hl=en_US

We will tackle the synopsis in the next blog....when you and me both have gone through 29 claims and 30 some pages of technicalities and patent jargon...

...planet of the Apps....

It's been few weeks since my last post and I feel a bit more ready to delve into the art of making an application. After exploring a few cross application platforms I have to admit that the reality is a bit harsher, specially when it comes to developing across platform. Developing for only one type of platform or hardware is a non option, unless one is developing app for his own kids, like myself. But even in the case of my overactive audience, a two year old swiping the droidX into smudge-dom and a six year old iPod touch power user, along with the prospect of iPhone5/iPad joining the family, while I crave a honeycomb tablet, there is enough diversification to make a case for cross platform or webapp.

Apple has played it beautifully and tied all app development to their platform. To open source proponents including myself, this is a nuisance, but the pain is not in the development itself, it is the pain of having to buy even a minimalistic Mac based system and installing Apple specific tools to be able to publish the application in Apple store(If you are into bungee jumping and other unncessary challenges, you can always try partitioning or virtualization). Alternately you can use Marmalade (Airplay) SDK on PC. To be fair it is same for Windows development and even more expensive(xcode is cheaper than VS), but Android dev is free on Eclipse. I want to be clear here, open source doesn't mean it is free. There is a price to be paid either in form of premier support services, hosted solutions or lincensing costs. Choosing between objective C or Java is one consideration but the future cycle time reduction, managability and recurring costs are more so. If you are a developer that have a great untested idea, then maybe choosing a platform and developing for it might be the way to go. If the app makes some money, investing in cross platform tools will become easy

Before I go further, some more thoughts on mobile apps as a cyber presence in addition to or replacement of conventional websites. Most big retailers have mobile apps, but the local potential is much greater. Mom and pop shops still don't have their own cyber presence, like the convenient store next door or the pizza shop. One can reach those through indirect channels (through sites that push local content) but most small shops don't have their own brand of internet front. I can imagine a case, where I can go to the wine shop in my neighborhood, wave at the NFC chip at the door, or scan the QR code and the phone automatically downloads the application for the store. Now I can order while walking and the store is able to push deals/discounts/coupons specific only to that store meant for the local audience, driven by presence based on zipcode or vicinity. The difference between internet and mobile app is the always on, less hassle and simplistic approach of apps; minimalism is the essence of a mobile app. If you ever see a loading status bar, or a rotating wheel, or a hourglass on an app, it is time to look for another.

Coming back to the development tools. The fact of the matter is configuration and installation of any of these cross platform dev tools is not simple, after all these opensource free to install tools come with premier (paid) support for a reason. This is a non issue if you are a developer who has chewed the ends of his finger nails on many a crowning nights troubleshooting your way to well earned stripes. For development houses, the setup is not as troublesome as it might appear. I have worked in a few development teams and the "tricks" travel fast and are well documented. Once the platform is selected usually there is a point person that keeps track of all the changes and keeps the developer community updated. Even then there is always some hickup from release to release but for the most part the dev engine keeps cranking. The learning curve for the newer team members is a pain that can't be avoided, but the cycle can be considerably reduced.
I must say that one of easiest development processes that I have experienced is through Microsoft platforms. One development studio packages all the necessary tools to develop, which makes life quiet easy. On top of that the Visual Basic and C# look pretty tempting and I am tempted, but as enthusiastic as I am, a little more mass on the device proliferation side needs to happen for the tropical fruit.
There are other choices to be made here, but I don't have time to go over the wireframing options, the project management using Agilo42 and my target "segment". ....I might post few details as my small projects crawls along.

...the dev ill.. in app heaven

....the times are changing. Gone are the days of good old one platform to drive your app home to revenue bliss. For better or for worse all the sleeping giants have awakened to the booming sounds of exploding apps and now we the people must choose where to invest. The cross platform development (platforms) have their own share of "diversity" from development script/language to the way platforms deliver native code making selection of platform still a task.

For truly native...how do we decide....our first trial market..by muscle, the might or the flight of the platform. In other words do we look at the mass (installed base) or the inertia (installed base plus growth, adaption rate), tool sets, capability, pipeline, partners. The answer is not a simple one as the variables change with demographics, location, consumer profiles as do the market numbers with the likes of Google, Apple, HP, Nokia, RIM, Samsung to name a few, bidding for the vote of confidence, along with the ever growing participants in the value chain. I, personally, want to make as simple as possible app, with easy as pie tools and then comfortably eat my cake of million or so downloads. If those sale revenues are not happening then a million impressions routed to hundred thousand downloads or launches should bring my minting dreams to fruition.

This is a catch 22 problem for late arrivals, whether apps and eco systems are driving hardware sales, or hardware sales are driving the platform adaption. In either case some table stake type of services/apps such as internet, search, location, messaging and, (soon) payment, on top of a slick device are the most basic requirements for building any momentum . The platform selection may not be as critical a bid for app stardom as it may seem in the deafening buzz (provided the technical capabilities of the platform cover the app requirements, and the surrounding network/eco system covers the rest). In all earnest would anybody in retail business be content with just one store selling their "goods" if they know that there is another store that caters to a different spectrum. Only if I am certain that the competing store with all its users is going to dust will I not create an app for it, even then, I will be most tempted to make an offering, and get me whatever revenue stream and recognition I can get, for certain level of risk. The landscape is not yet mature and betting on most big players in some order is reasonable as long as I have a quantifiable belief of the app demand, the platform's installed base, and that the platform tools will render my app to satisfaction.

Most would love cross platform development or web apps that can exploit the mobile device as native apps do, without ever needing to download 10 different SDKs. I believe that day will eventually come when thin clients and web services will provide acceptable speeds to lower level drivers for complicated renditions. That being said, as the hardware advances, so will the speed and complexity of native apps. A local app that can decode an image faster will out perform the app that relies on a remote computation of a sensor input; unless the app can do without the "local" data, or it needs computing power and database storage beyond what the device can muster by itself. An example will be augmented reality app that can scan a retail isle and give detail of every single item in that isle _ and then do it for every store in the mall, near run time.

I like diversity when it means more probability of success. From go to market perspective if my app doesn't do well in one platform and one set of consumers, there are other localities, and tastes spread across continents, which is enough for me to make a pact with the SDK devil, for the time being. But if I am a one man coding machine targeting "doable" apps then maybe diving into every single native platform may not be the best choice. I will choose from Appcelerator, Rhomobile, Phonegap or ...etc based on synergy between my application requirements, my programming strengths, and the target platform (A slightly older, but yet a very informative, comparison lies here
http://www.amlcode.com/2010/07/16/comparison-appinventor-rhomobile-phonegap-appcelerator-webview-and-aml/ )

newer comparisons here..

http://savagelook.com/blog/portfolio/a-deeper-look-at-appcelerator-and-phonegap

http://rhomobile.com/enterprise-development/Smartphone%20Frameworks%20Comparison%20Matrix.pdf

http://maniacdev.com/2010/01/iphone-development-windows-options-available/

Subway running late ...on data

I was on my way to down town and I did an adhoc survey of people around me, there were exactly two individuals indulged in some kind of one way information exchange with the paper based medium. Although the experience seemed immersive, the only interactive part of that primitive source was its rustling sound, along with added amusement of the dexterity needed for holding it and then moving to the next page simultaneously. This effort in the name of viva la paper is commendable in lieu of the fact that almost everyone else who was engaged in other occupations besides holding on to the rods or their seats or practicing the fine art of looking without feeling or expressing, had an electronic gadget of some sort and most of those "geraet" were, yes, mobile phones or likes (I really think we should stop calling them mobile phones, and go the German way of calling them "Handy's", or use an umbrella term of "handhelds" for all such devices).

After I was done amusing myself with the little survey to confirm mobile onslaught, which by the way is already history, I moved on to my second favorite past time; browsing the subway walls. Although I could see the extraordinary offers in wholesome ads targeted toward a broad, and I mean really broad audience, because you don't get any more diverse then the subway crowd in New York, my mind was lighted with flashing tiny bulbs.

Approximately 4 million use the NYC subways daily. For the sake of simplicity(or complexity) we will assume that a small percentage of them carry connectable devices and of those some (percent) actually use these living plastics while commuting, and then of those there are a few that would willingly consent to a data connectivity(with some strings) and therein lies our target audience. In all I would imagine that a million impressions, not of the same ad, but maybe of million different, but highly personalized, marketing messages (it sounds so less evil), can be served. And I haven't even touched the implications it will have on push content for digital signage spread across A,B,C ... and 1,2, 3 .....

The model to carry will be to allow free connection, with fine print or large print, doesn't matter, nobody reads them, that all data will be monitored, with some caveats to privacy, so on and so forth, and off course the price for your free ride to browsing, emailing and all the, good, data centric activities will be, that you will bear the banner, or the inserts, or occasional SMS or two. And if you don't like it, well than pay per minute or per gallon of data.

Since the big carriers don't get the signal down there, I might be willing to comply with free Wi-Fi even with some timed and targeted marketing, or pay for some, on demand, minutes of connectivity, watch a small show, finish up on a movie, browse through shopping, look up the map; there are just so many pieces of internet heaven that can be had with a little connectivity.

So what is keeping the MTA from buying some wholesale broadband, and taking us for a ride; nothing actually. I believe the things are already in some kind of works, so get your marketing bows ready for some target practice.

"App"ack on the Enterprise....

I agree with Gartner that the ultimate differentiator in tablet space is the rich eco system that can provide a steady stream of applications to enrich various facets of consumers life and the price will drive the "other" tablet market. The only limitation I see here is that price is usually not a differentiator in a perceived luxury market (tablet is a luxury for now) and the usual cost benefit analysis from the consumers perspective gets skewed in favor of the market leader for number of subjective and some objective reasons. Till the point that every person feels they cannot live without a tablet (at least in the wealthiest of nations, while the developing and under developed are skipping through the whole PC phase anyways, and the price is a huge factor in driving sales) one cannot compete on price alone. The cheaper devices have to come up with better or at the minimum same set of capabilities, in order to challenge the market leader.

In this post I want to highlight the enterprise effect of mobile applications. The heavy hitter business process type of enterprise apps such as ERP, ECM, CRM by the likes of SAP, Oracle, HP, IBM, salesforce, are already available on mobiles through web or in native form. These apps on the newer form factors are by no means trivial in their impact on enterprise mobility, on the contrary. But the real potential of the mobile apps lies at micro level of departments and individuals. The detail of personalization that mobile devices, tablets, smartphones enable, will come to organizations on enterprise controlled consumer devices. The power of an application to listen to an opinion and let user voice their own in real time can have the same viral effect on the enterprise communication as it has on the social fabric. Rumors can be culled and spread, ideas gathered at fraction of cost and at far greater speeds than any other channel.

The hurdles, to all this spur of the moment boundary less contribution to corporate indulgence by all ranks, are the initial cost of creating,then maintaining, and finally making sure that the app doesn't come with hidden agendas or malware. It is not just about having a VPN conrol the intranet; the new uber mobile users, bring with them an independent mindset in the enterprise realm. Most of such enterprise "consumers" take the tweeting liberty they enjoy in their personal lives very serious. Porting those mobile personal experiences and advantages to the enterprise in confinement may collide with the essence of openness, but there is promise in context and location awareness.

All said, the world of app is coming to enterprises, small and big, in a gigantic wave. But on the way to ubiquitous access to the collective minds, enterprises will have to sort out the apps they want to put on their "enterprise stores", especially if the apps will be crowd sourced, albeit with in the enterprise. Once the IT has a streamlined the app creation process and hammered the security threats, almost every department will have something to offer. This has the potential to revolutionize connectivity and information sharing, irrespective, if the intent is enterprise propaganda, consensus building or idea generation. The new generation of workforce will come equipped with the skills to transform enterprises with their mobile devices in terms of content creation, dissemination and collecting opinions.

For an interesting read checkout Nielson's Youth mobile usage stats....
which can be found here....
http://www.nielsen.com/us/en/insights/reports-downloads/2010/mobile-youth-around-the-world.html
(You will need to provide information to download)

The "iCrave a tablet" market

Will the iPad be the iPod of tablets in terms of sweeping the market. This question has taken me again and again to different stores, from BestBuy to Verizon to online and I have to admit that the momentum of iPad and iPad2 can be paralleled with a wrecking ball demolishing the existing eco systems. But the good thing is its catalyst effect for not only reviving failing industries and spawning new ones through extended use cases, but also a rekindling (no pun intended) of its own breed. The device that can provide platform to a vast number of services truly deserves praise.

But the question remains are we looking at the formation of a 80/20 market. If we use the current market/consumer data and base a forecast on it, we are sure to find a YES at the end of five years. But in a nascent market can we take the risk of betting on the leader after a first few laps when seemingly many furlongs are still to go. Well, if the other horses are barely huffing and puffing out of the gates, the audience is sure to bet on the leader. The verdict for consumer market is almost out when it comes to the tablet market, unless some of the other players are able to divert a fraction of the app/device/eco system driven consumer and developer momentum towards them. One way to do it will be to flood the market with cheaper and some what equivalent devices, give developers free ride to tools and app stores, and put get university programs going for their platforms. This involves considerable risk and only few companies in the world have the channels to scale, management and resources to even think about such an undertaking.

Each time I have visited the above stores for checking the tablet pulse, I felt the other tablets as orphans compared to iPad and its sibling. There is usually a crowd around the "pads" while the rest of the constellation felt sort of by itself, 0r shall we say in its own space (with me). On the other hand the PC notebooks seem to be doing fine and tons of people still buying them, why? The win/tel combo is cheap with the necessary applications. Yes..the forecasts for notebooks and PCs is also in the "recession" phase, but overall the market is big so it will continue on, the future of netbooks, I am not so sure. The mediocre capability priced to sell works well in PCs case, but in terms of tablets, right now we have the best(debatable..but) priced to sell, with all the applications, and support. This will be hard to beat unless you have a channel, to sell a really niche application, on a cheaper device.

The good thing about technology is that it is a moving target, the bad thing you can't sell it without a crafted use case. Monetization is the only game worth playing in the business technology realm and it needs more than one piece of equipment when it comes to enterprise space. That's where we might find a bit more competition to the mass inertia; in the nooks and crannies of specific applications where generalizations are not as effective - small but creative changes to a device can have considerable impact on productivity.

Mobile pond is big enough... for fishes of all sizes

Continuing on from the previous post, if I were to speculate on the next frontiers for mobile, this is how I want to think. Which are the remaining functions that can be packaged and connected? The adventure doesn't have to be constrained to seemingly mobile applications but traditionally fixed applications and devices are all game. Discounting the fact that a dumb terminal may still be needed in order to efficiently use the computing power for various functions, some part of intelligence or computing power will transfer to the mobile device and the rest will be outsourced to the network.

But here is the fun part, based on what paradigm the vendors believe in they tend to develop within the defines of that paradigm until the cost of making far exceeds the cost of sustaining the paradigm. Companies that believe function drives the sales are adding core mobility features to their existing platforms, making smart phones out of their devices example will be Garmin making mobile phone out of its GPS, Sony and Nintendo adding a network technology to PSP or gameboy. Cell phone makers that believe it is the applications that are the paradigm shift are betting on operating systems that they believe have the most critical mass of app developers. Those that believe that consumers get married to an OS want to own their platforms. Still others think that the content delivery eco systems are driving the handset rage and they want universal stores for content; those will be your mega service providers. In the name of consumerization the bridge between consumers and enterprise devices is being explored by some. And lets not forget the low tier entrants who believe that consumers are fickle and cheap, price is the deciding factor so let’s make a phone that resembles the winning horse, it may not gallop like a thorough bred or jump through burning hoops but it will get through the basic hurdles and the price will be just right to entice. All of this and I have not even forayed into the the different beliefs on ideal display size. Something for everyone maynot be a profitable paradigm but a constellation needs time to take shape!

With obvious market share holders in near term, the mobile market remains highly competitive, but it will always have room to squeeze more winners. We have gone from keys, stylus, touch, gesture, speech recognition and 3D just on the user interface and data entry in less than two decades. Eventually the eco system driven usage revolution will become common ground in terms of its availability in different flavors on variety of platforms. Guaranteed there will be followers of one platform or the other which will help that vendor retain a level of market share, but overall there will always be enough flux for newer ideas to make a splash.

Mobile....the next frontier(s)

There is no one deciding factor; that by now is clear with all the different firms taking an aim at the same bulls eye but through hundred different directions and hundred different projectiles. Mobile phones have gone through changes, and the development may be defined through many lenses. Painting the historical progression is not easy as each brush stroke will create its own explanation of the available landscape, which will be wholly plausible to the painter, though it may remain mystery to everyone else. For example I can talk about how the cell phone is a fashion accessory, or may be its form is what has changed, or it is all about creating a perception when it comes to marketing. I didn’t mention function because the data and voice connectivity are the lowest common denominator or "table stakes" and are a moot selling point, (unless the reputation of dropped calls becomes viral).

Thinking back when just owning the “brick” was fashionable getting a lighter one became hip, and then smaller was “in” and after that sleeker smoother sharper edges came and recently just owning one (of a certain brand) was trendy again. The problem with that paradigm is that one cannot really predict what will be fashionable and a device that is in major ways driven by technology becomes whimsical in its forecast, like predicting a pop diva’s next hit.

We can debate the form cycle (Brick, candybar, clamshell, slide, swivel, curved, square, round, oval) or function vs perception (clam is better than candybar or vice versa). In its own (short) era, riding on the technology of the time, each category met with its destination through varying tastes of consumers, be that due to any number of reasons such as demographics, location, cultures etc.

But there are other changes that interest me a lot more. Changes that result in cannibalization of function and form. Maybe cannibalization is not the right word here, I really mean convergence of functions, spread across devices, into one device. Almost every personal piece of hardware that used to cling to or hang from a persons, arms, legs, wrists necks have converged to one device. Pagers, Cameras, running GPSs, data entry, notepads, radios, portable TVs, gaming devices, calendars all now play together in one space. Substitution is one aspect but not only are all these different roles packed into one device, they are all connected. This is not just convergence, it is a connected convergence of function based on context and transfer of intelligence into one device.

Mobile is here...now what (Part II)

Whatever data was on paper went digital and then metaphorically to the cloud and now the cloud has wings. Although one can argue that essentially nothing has changed in digital domain accept the evolution of ways to access and present the data.

The big bang that was iPhone to the mobile universe and the follow up tremor that is iPad has turned the mobility industry on its head. Within few months, nation’s fastest network became the nation’s most condemned due to dropped calls and customer complaints. The truth of the matter is telecom networks of the old were not designed for everyone to be on them at the same time, they are multiplexed in hopes of maximizing utilization. The proliferation of information hungry data guzzlers have put, well, pressure on the infrastructure. But it has been a good pressure, because we were thinking 4G sometimes in 2015 and here we are in 2011 seemingly in a 4G competition; even few billion dollars worth of network upgrades merit the waiting period of some dropped calls, or maybe not.

According to Thomas Kuhn scientific advancement is not evolutionary, but is something of a paradigm shift in our perception. Since I have not grown any wings yet, I would agree with him. Human actions and interactions are limited to a few permutations or extensions of their instincts, but the ways and means to approaching those combinations change according to our "gadgets" or scientific innovation. The internet revolution was big, it was bigger than hulk exploding in his trousers, but this mobile giant I feel is even bigger. Internet allowed access, and mobile is a promise of omnipresent access, give and take few black spots. Thanks to smartphones and smarter people, I can check the shrinking dollars in my checking, or the bulging credit when I want, or pay through my phone and make purchases at a whim (with discount offers off course), check if I can get a cheaper/better deal, see if my house is still standing, or my appliances are consuming energy when they are not supposed to, enter my abode by wave of my hands(the device in my hand that is), keep track of all my friends and then be “followed” in return, basically be connected, be really really connected to everything, everywhere.

This torrent of data is great if it makes for an efficient life forming a tightly knit symbiotic relation of every being and every resource through instant information to each “node”, preserving/nurturing the life after us not the "life after". So far human advancement has come at a cost to the sustenance of the planet but the jury is still out as the planet continues to breathe and the water has not yet risen to Al Gore levels. Hopefully, the ease of use fostered by technology will not be synonymous with a lethargy of mind and will result in better “connection” to all life.

Setting up Eclipse 3.6 (Helios) for Android...the simple way

Open source, what can one say, it is open and as open goes the components are openly scattered and so is the documentation. I am not a philanthropist, the blog serves as reminder and gatherer of my thoughts, and if it serves any other purpose thats just swell (I will always put my disclaimer right in front and this is an indirect disclaimer for all the blunders I make). Now to the technical details and I am assuming that the person looking to install the Android dev kit is somewhat software literate and knows his way around the eclipse. Starting from the top.

1. Install the Java JDK from

https://cds.sun.com/is-bin/INTERSHOP.enfinity/WFS/CDS-CDS_Developer-Site/en_US/-/USD/ViewProductDetail-Start?ProductRef=jdk-6u24-oth-JPR@CDS-CDS_Developer

(Choose the system and do the drill)

2. Install Eclipse Classical from (drill down to the right Eclipse Classical Helios)

http://www.eclipse.org/downloads/

OR go straight to

http://www.eclipse.org/downloads/packages/eclipse-classic-361/heliossr1


3. I will say save yourself trouble with missing packages later and just Install them.

Here is how we do that.
a. Launch eclipse, goto Windows->Preferences

b. On the left side choose Install/Update and click on Available Software Sites. There should be at least two to three default update sites there. Make sure they are checked and "Enabled".

c. Surprisingly the installation will not work from with in the Windows->Preferences. For that you need to go and click on the help menu item. In the help menu click on "Install New Software". In the Work with field choose the "All available sites" OR whatever update site is available. After pending message number of packages will appear in the window. Select them all and click Next. After the installation is done we can move on to the next step.

4. Go back to Windows->Preferences and add the Android ADT download site using the instructions here

http://developer.android.com/sdk/eclipse-adt.html#installing.

The instructions for download site are under the "Downloading the ADT Plugin " heading".

5. Now we go back to Help->Install New Software. Choose the "ADT Plugin" in the Work with and then choose the "Developer Tools" click Next. Since we installed/updated packages earlier, this installation should go smooth. If everything goes well you should see Android appear in the Windows->Prefrences.

6. Now we get to install the Android SDK, which can be downloaded from

http://developer.android.com/sdk/index.html

7. We are not done yet. Going back to eclipse and Windows->Prefrences. Click on Android and in the SDK location enter or browse to the location of SDK that we installed in step 6.

8. Whew! after whatever many restarts of Eclipse during installation step we are ready to use the Android SDK of your choice for the target device.

I can jolt down the steps to do the Hello Android, but from here the budding Android developer is better off following the instructions here

http://developer.android.com/resources/tutorials/hello-world.html

Happy coding and hope you arrive to the following soon. Viva la open source.

Phonetainment...and mobile musings

There are thousands of apps to show the computing profess of the touch based mini computers from graphic intensive video games to professional slide makers but the point is out of thousands of those applications each person uses few and the firms that are trying to reach their consumers need to target their advertising dollars to a person and not an audience. It took me a short time to download a music sequencing application on Android and program a few bars. About 5 years ago, this would have been unthinkable and cost me an arm and a leg in software and hardware bundle, but today I spent my coffee money on a recurring happiness.

Mobile to business is same as wheels were to business earlier. The smart connected devices make targeted advertising easier in certain sense, since the user location can be triangulated and also the fact that the retailers warming up to free in store WiFi for their customers will lock in the user location to that store making it much easier to provide customized offers based on user shopping history or their location within the store. A device that has the computing power of a reasonable desktop computer coupled with WiFi capability and broadband data connection makes a very informed consumer. Approaching the consumer with the right channel is of utmost important, specially when the operating system and respective mobile devices are fragmented over regions.

I was reading AdMob metrics highlights and mobile developer survey from Appcelerator and there are some interesting details. For example thinking of iOS from Apple, the first thing that comes to mind is iPhone, and then the iPAD depending upon which line you were standing in last time. But in reality iPod touch still makes a large portion of Apple device usage. The access to broadband is also divided among WiFi users and WAN users thereby signifying usage patterns based on location/connection, since neither of the two technologies is available everywhere. Android has surpassed iPhone in the smartphone market share but in reality, the iOS devices lead the Android devices 2:1 ratio in US and 3.5 to 1 ratio worldwide. With the incoming onslaught of Honeycomb, WebOS, QnX and WP7 tablets/phones, these ratios will change, but with iPhone5, iPAD2 and "mini me" of iPhone coming, the balance will remain in Apple's favor.

Based on Appcelerator survey of mobile developers the interest in iPAD and iPhone app development remains more than for Android based devices. But the landscape will slowly morph into a tightly packed space with Android, Windows phone 7, WebOS and Blackberry. I am sure that many of the newly energized WP7 developers will jump into foray with the Nokia and Microsoft alliance along with the two companies themselves putting their developers to this task. The appcelarator mobile developer survey divides the developer landscape in three tiers Leaders (iPhone, Android, and iPad), up & comers (Blackberry and Windows Phone), and laggards (Symbian, Palm, Meego, and Kindle). The main theme remains that applications are becoming table stakes for the survival of platforms because the device is now a broad service platform and apps are the front face of those services. The adoption of hardware devices drives advertising as well as technology infrastructure of enterprises that have to factor in the hazards of supporting increasingly mobile work force which is blending consumer devices with work.

Smart interaction with such a consumer can be a deciding factor for hyper competitive industries which vie for similar pie of consumer segment with more or less same offerings. One need only look at any of the Mobile projections from industry analysts for smart mobile devices to mobile Internet usage for the next 5 years and one can see an exponential growth. The speed of technology evolution around mobile devices is evident from TI announcing OMAP5 when the OMAP4 devices have barely surfaced, not forgetting, Qualcomm, Nvidia and forgetting Intel. The focus has clearly shifted from PC and online to mobile and always on.This is transformational time and companies that are even in the early majority of adopters will reap the benefits of their efforts; the area under the curve for innovators and early adopters has long been filled. This is not simple specially for global firms because different device manufacturers have dominant market share in specific regions and with that comes variety of software platforms and usage habits, crucial to deciding upon which mobile channels to follow. For example in Africa and Asia Nokia has the lead market share, they are on Symbian platform but Nokia recently chose Microsoft Windows Phone 7 for their next generation smartphone OS, how will this effect the usage habits if at all of users in those regions.

Well, if CES and NRF were any indication of trends we can guess the talk of the floor on MWC and it will be all about the big fat data pipes and the containers they load up for the consumers to slurp all that data resulting in consumers knowing what they want; "more" than the marketing machines...or do they!.

Mobile is here....now what? (Part 1)

I think the projections of smartphone surpassing feature phones and 50 billion gazillion being sold is now clear to us. Putting the OS wars aside, and bearing with the throttling and unthrottling of user data usage I want to explore how the mobility craze will impact businesses and consumers as the "smartness" becomes ubiquitous. I will reiterate here that it is less about smartphone or tablets then it is about data access becoming a necessity and then commodity. There are number of folks who still have their feature phones and are happy with them, but how many people can one find with a black and white TV. Then their are those who say that data is expensive and it is, but just having a phone service may not remain an available choice for long. Yes, one didn't need a satellite or a cable subscription catching the "white" waves off air. But even uncle Sam decided that the nephew needs to move on to digital world.

In this blog I just want to look ahead, far from now, when the mobile back haul is ready to carry 100MB per user load, when the ISP servers can support the same for each user and all but few will have the devices that can make those data speeds sing and dance.

I want to explore what will happen to us when all the hooplah has settled into reality. What kind of seismic shifts can we expect to see with the advent of data so readily available along with devices that can manipulate that data to users ecstasy, and users that can swipe their way through mobile experiences without blinking. Beginning with the gross changes that come to my mind.

Paper to Mobile (books, magzines, brochures, handouts, tickets, forms etc)

Plastic to Mobile (credit cards, loyalty cards, metro cards, ID cards, library cards etc)

Digital online to Mobile (Video, music)

Mobile voice to Mobile video (video telephony, video conferencing)

Bricks and Mortar (to Online) to Mobile (Banking, shopping)

Desktop (to notebook) to Mobile

The shift from paper to digital is happening with the speed of light. From books, magazines and news papers to business forms, such as transaction vouchers, insurance claims, medical records, airline tickets the previously paper domain is rapidly transforming itself to be agile in mobile world.

The next shift that is slow to come but is definitely on the move, is the drift from plastic to digital. The plastic money will become mobile money and all other plastic cards will become mobile identity. This I already mentioned in my previous blog, includes loyalty cards, identity cards, business cards, and credit/debit cards. This will also lead to changes in private access in terms of lockers, clubs, houses, apartments through mobile identity or digital keys stored on a mobile.

The music made the shift to digital with the advent of mp3 and it has been mobile for sometime even on feature phones in form of fancy ringtones. The fat content of video is only recently beginning to enjoy the luxury of wider bandwidths. This transformation on a timeline basis is mostly dependent on the availability of higher bandwidths of the next generation wireless networks such as LTE and WiMAX, since the streaming transformation began first with the explosion of YouTube and then Hulu.
Another big shift that will happen is to the main feature of telephony itself. Video has always been more addictive than voice. This transformation from voice to video for the gen Z will change the social norms. Although social networking comes close to breach of my privacy I don't consider myself an "oldie" and I am a "techie" by design, still my fingers don't punch out emoticons or those LOLs with the speed of my 8 year old nephew.

The reason I identified mobile banking with mobile shopping is because it is part of the same shift. A consumer walk out from bricks and mortar, to online and soon many will walk with most services they need in their pockets. The distance that a user covers on foot is now reduced to few clicks for many of the services that these within the four wall fronts provide. Even within the four walls the traditional sales associate role is disappearing as consumers go for discount shopping and comparative price checks while they are looking at the item in the isle.

As I keep thinking about trends, I had to add this bit, which I find is very important. The ability of mobile devices to act as fully functional computing devices by leveraging cloud computing or remote controlling the desktop using Bluetooth, WiFi or other available broadband. The mobile device are a cross between a completely thin client and a thick client with enough computing power to render the remote terminal and handle the data throughput. This is will be a more prominent feature on the tablets than on smaller form factors.

To continue exploration - the next blog will be on the more difficult topic of actual impact to businesses.........

Implications of Mobile Wallet

Let's assume the world of mobile wallet is here, irrespective of when actually. Everything in your wallet is being replaced by a universal ID or bunch of IDs stored in your mobile phone or on a server that can be accessed by either a mobile phone or by another box that can talk wireless to the mobile phone. We are talking about replacing metro cards, medical cards, credit cards, debit cards, loyalty cards, cash oh! yes, and sooner or later the government issued license, with a digital copy(I do believe it is long time before the cards actually disappear). The rapidity with which these changes are being explored is quiet astonishing, maybe not to the Japanese but here in US this qualifies for crossing the chasm in a speed boat (well. I mean when we have reached the chasm that is). The transactions between consumers and vendors of all possible colors being carried out simply at a wave of the mobile device will have consequences and I am thinking about what is on the table for next few years.

Expect an M for Mobile logo along with Visa, Master cards, American express etc. The Discover and Iris are a good thing but the carriers are in business of networks and it is highly likely that they will have their own little wave through device, instead of a swipe magnetic stripe reader at point of sale. To lure the merchants they can give the small cellular box that latches on to the carrier's wireless network and has NFC built in for free. The details of rest of the payment processing are beyond the scope of this blog, but the carriers are capable of making money holding accounts for their network users(carrier billing is already a norm for some services), the issuance of "eCredit" can still go through normal banks. Although contact less payment POS that handle stripe are around, but if the carriers really want the piece of the pie, they will need to have control over transactions. This has obvious but serious consequences for the credit card(Visa, Master etc) and pin card (NYCE, Star etc) network providers. A lot depends on how fast the consumers will adapt mobile wallets and the marketing ability of carriers to sell their POS solutions. (I don't expect the payment networks taking this lightly or sitting down.)

The entry of another major player in form of cumulative power of carriers to provide mobile wallet services will result in increased competition in consumer credit market. The credit and related fees should get cheaper for consumers and merchants because to enter into the space the network service providers will have to entice merchants and consumers alike. There might be deals in near future that that will bundle the Mobile "E-Money" account and phone service account. Just like one can get a phone for free for two years service, we might see phone and mobile money account packages.

A boom in loyalty cards will come, even to the point where the deli next door and the fruit shop on the corner will have frequent visitor allowances. Right now my wallet can only hold so many cards and I really need to keep the obesity of my fat wallet checked. But with digital loyalty sky is the limit. Another reason of drive will be the carriers offering those services to the SMBs along with their Mobile POS.

Along with security there is the inherent issue facing any battery powered device; running out of power. Running out of battery - synonymous with running out of money is not very comforting to me. So I will need my phone never to run out of charge. Charging of phones will have to be available, what is the alternative, the banks will have universal charging stations, the ATMs will also come with NFC and you can charge your account and phone(naw, just account), the powermat will take off, solar batteries will become popular, the "charge sticks" will gain market and finally charge through WiFi will be available in smartphones. I can't say for sure which one will be dominant. This issue is more potent than security, after all the card can be stolen as well but unlike the card the mobile device can point out its location before it is used making it technically safer device; and there is plethora of security mechanisms on the way, inlcuding biometrics, pins, encryption and/or combination of those. I think technology will take care of the real security threats, the consumer mindset is the bigger hurdle in mass adaption which will take some genuinely time saving use cases that make life easy, and some evangelizing.

However the landscape evolves, I, for one, am looking forward to the day when I don't have to present my loyalty card, the coupon that I printed over Internet along with my credit/debit card. The location & context should generate coupons on my device, which automatically get attached to the items I scanned with my smartphone and the loyalty information, and then the simple touch to pay.

Apps and Technologies that will rock my world in 2011--(Part 2)

Continuing on the theme, I don't want to leave the following as a nagging thought on my mind.
Connected Cars:
Short of exact numbers and percentages I would say that a decent amount of automotive customer interactions will come through mobile devices, including the connected car. The cars will talk to each other, their owners, traffic lights and whole lot of other devices.This has implications for telemetry solution providers as well as differentiation for car manufacturers. Due to inherent complexity of such solutions, I would think that by 2011 connected cars will mostly revolve around a comprehensive solution for consumer devices such as smartphones, notebooks and tablets.
Connected homes:
The world is integrating technology fast and consumers are getting used to connected services themes brought about by iPhones app revolution, where services can be chained to seemingly unconnected links; remember finding a "Tako Yaki" place while watching Pirates of Caribbean. Continuing on the integrated theme, my next big thing on technology front is the connected home. Apart from the smart grids, smart meters and rest of infrastructure needs I am talking about the connected home as a subscription service by a broadband or home security service provider. A high-end system will be made of a customized computer, central server control or smartphone to control the lighting control, HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning) system, home-theater components, garage door opener, security and video surveillance systems, irrigation system, window coverings, pools and spas, appliances and health care monitors.

Seamless Roaming:
This is also known as the fixed network convergence, for those who like to keep it technical, but the idea is simply that devices will become smart enough to change the network according to their data need and the availability of the network. A user will soon be able to move between 3G, 4G, WiFi, and Femtocells, without having to manually change the network.

Apart from the technology trends I mentioned earlier, I think that the Solar power generation, tablets as more than browsing and gaming devices, mobile video telephony (mentioned as part of UC), Internet TV (Google TV, Apple TV, Cisco box, Motorola Box etc) and Mobile 3D displays are also going to gain major traction in 2011.